![]() The role of the forecaster in the real world is quite different from that of the mythical seer. The one we inhabit is quite different-little is certain, nothing is preordained, and what we do in the present affects how events unfold, often in significant, unexpected ways. That world is the stuff of myth and superstition. We don’t, of course: Prediction is possible only in a world in which events are preordained and no amount of action in the present can influence future outcomes. Their requests reveal the common but fundamentally erroneous perception that forecasters make predictions. People at cocktail parties are always asking me for stock tips, and then they want to know how my predictions have turned out. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don’t fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast. In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blindsided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. ![]() ![]() He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large.
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